1. DOC → NOAA → NCEP (Maryland)
2. NWS → WRH (NWS regions) → WFO → CWA
3. ASOS, WSR88d (Doppler), AWIPS, ......
   • Doppler coverage map and current loop
4. media ( Ch 5, Ch 10, Ch 12, Ch 15, national):
   • meteorologist? "weathercaster"? "personality"?
5. "watches" and "warnings" → ONLY NWS!!

II.   FORECASTING METHODS AND TECHNIQUES

A.   Persistence

B.   Steady State or Trend

C.   Analogue

D.   Weather Types

• teleconnections
  • El Nino/La Nina; MJO; PNA; others

F.   Climatology Forecast

III.   ACCURACY, SKILL, AND MORE

A.   Accuracy vs. Skill

B.   Numerical Weather Prediction

1. atmospheric models - variables
   • sets of differential equations = assumptions inherent
   • grid spacing and vertical levels
   • data included
   • time of input/frequency of output
2. atmospheric models - acronyms
   • GFS (replaced AVN / MRF)
     • 0-192 hrs = -- 28km, 64 layers; 3hr forecast
     • 192-384 hrs = 84 km, 64 layers; 12 hr forecast
   • NAM/WRF (formerly ETA) -- 12km, 60 layers
   • RAP ("rapid refresh") -- 13 km, 50 layers
     • run every hour (updated ASOS obs.)
     • computations take nearly one hour!
   • NOGAPS -- 44km, 42 layer
   • AFWA/MM5 ? 45/15/5 km, 40-57 layers
   • GEM ("Canadian") -- 15 km, 58 layers
   • ECMWF (16km/91), UKMET, JMA,....
   • Ensemble forecasting
3. "prog" = forecast chart = "guidance"
   • another example

1. education / knowledge of processes
   • fronts ... isallobars
   • 500 mb map
   • Omega High or Blocking High
   • etc....
2. compare computer output
3. local topography: AZ ... CA
4. personal intuition

FORECASTING CHAPTER ----->

Forecasting

Pollution